Likely Competitiveness Of Each New District

January 10, 2012

Congress

  Competitiveness Index* Voter Registration
Dist. Rep. % Dem. % +/- % Rep. % Dem. % Other
5 64.4% 35.6% 28.8% 44.4% 22.3% 33.3%
4 63.9% 36.1% 27.8% 41.5% 23.4% 35.1%
8 61.1% 38.9% 22.2% 41.4% 25.7% 33.0%
6 60.2% 39.8% 20.4% 41.3% 24.7% 34.0%
2 50.2% 49.8% 0.4% 34.7% 34.2% 31.1%
9 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 33.5% 31.3% 35.1%
1 48.0% 52.0% -4.0% 30.1% 39.6% 30.3%
3 38.0% 62.0% -24.0% 21.9% 43.2% 34.9%
7 32.7% 67.3% -34.6% 17.7% 44.2% 38.1%

Legislature

  Competitiveness Index* Voter Registration
Dist. Rep. % Dem. % +/- % Rep. % Dem. % Other
12 67.0% 33.0% 34.0% 47.0% 20.6% 32.4%
1 66.9% 33.1% 33.8% 47.1% 20.2% 32.7%
25 65.2% 34.8% 30.4% 45.9% 22.7% 31.4%
5 64.1% 35.9% 28.2% 39.7% 23.7% 36.6%
22 63.9% 36.1% 27.8% 44.9% 23.0% 32.1%
13 63.8% 36.2% 27.6% 41.2% 25.3% 33.6%
23 63.1% 36.9% 26.2% 45.2% 21.7% 33.1%
15 62.3% 37.7% 24.6% 42.8% 23.5% 33.8%
16 61.4% 38.6% 22.8% 38.7% 23.6% 37.7%
14 59.5% 40.5% 19.0% 39.0% 29.7% 31.3%
17 58.8% 41.2% 17.6% 39.3% 25.4% 35.3%
11 58.2% 41.8% 16.4% 38.9% 27.9% 33.2%
21 57.6% 42.4% 15.2% 37.7% 28.9% 33.4%
20 56.7% 43.3% 13.4% 36.8% 28.8% 34.4%
28 55.6% 44.4% 11.2% 40.2% 29.2% 30.6%
6 54.5% 45.5% 9.0% 37.8% 29.0% 33.1%
18 52.7% 47.3% 5.4% 36.9% 29.3% 33.7%
8 49.0% 51.0% -2.0% 28.5% 38.1% 33.4%
10 47.7% 52.3% -4.6% 33.5% 37.0% 29.5%
9 46.6% 53.4% -6.8% 33.2% 37.0% 29.9%
4 43.8% 56.2% -12.4% 24.5% 40.4% 35.1%
26 43.4% 56.6% -13.2% 25.8% 33.0% 41.1%
30 42.5% 57.5% -15.0% 24.0% 38.6% 37.4%
2 41.6% 58.4% -16.8% 24.5% 42.3% 33.2%
29 39.9% 60.1% -20.2% 21.5% 39.5% 39.0%
24 39.1% 60.9% -21.8% 24.8% 39.1% 36.1%
19 37.9% 62.1% -24.2% 19.8% 40.0% 40.2%
7 34.0% 66.0% -32.0% 19.3% 53.8% 26.9%
3 30.0% 70.0% -40.0% 17.7% 50.1% 32.2%
27 27.2% 72.8% -45.6% 14.6% 47.8% 37.6%

*Competitiveness Index 9: The formula is 1/4 weight on the 2010 election results, 1/4 on the 2008 election, 1/8 on the 2006 election, 1/8 on the 2004 election, and 1/4 on major party registration. Races where one candidate received more than 60% of the total Republican and Democratic vote are not included. Source: Independent Redistricting Commission

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