Thinking Arizona
Facts to Inform the Public Discourse
The Competitive Nine
November 3, 2010
Thumbnail sketches of the nine legislative districts that have elected one or more candidates of both parties:
District 5
Location: Covering much of the eastern section of the state in Navajo, Gila, Graham, Apache and Greenlee counties.
Registration: Republicans have a 2.2 percent advantage (based on latest available figures from 2010 primary election). This represents major slippage for the Democrats, who enjoyed a 10 percent advantage as recently as 2002.
Results: In terms of races won by each of the parties, District 5 ranks with District 25 as coming closest to equally divided – but this is misleading. The Republicans have won eight of the 12 races, and their average margin of victory has been in the double digits. The Democrats’ success has rested solely on the shoulders of Jack Brown, the St. Johns rancher who is an institution in these parts. Brown has “termed out,” as they say, having served the maximum number of terms in both the House and the Senate. That means he won’t be there to win one for the Democrats this fall.
Advantage: Republicans.
District 10
Location: The top of the “reversed C”. Covers parts of northern Phoenix and Glendale along Interstate 17 between Northern and Bell, 51st Avenue and 16th Street.
Registration: The closest of the close. The latest figures show Republicans constitute 34 percent of the district, Democrats 33 percent, and others (primarily independents) 32 percent. It couldn’t be much tighter.
Results: Republicans hold a big election advantage, with the Democrats managing to win only one race. But the contest between Republican Doug Quelland and Democrat Jackie Thrasher for the second of the district’s two House seats has been a doozy in the last three elections. Republicans Linda Gray and Jim Weiers have held the Senate seat and one of the House seats over the past four elections.
The Senate races have had the closest average margin of all the districts in which both parties fielded a candidate in all four of the elections. Victories by margins averaging 11 percent wouldn’t normally be regarded as squeakers but they’re still much tighter than the average victory margins of 25 percent that Republicans have enjoyed in Districts 6 and 7 just to the north and east of the reversed C.
Advantage: Republicans.
District 11
Location: The upper right of the reversed C. Straddling Route 51 from Indian School Road on the south to Thunderbird Road on the north. Includes all of Paradise Valley.
Registration: Republicans have a 12 percent registration edge, easily on the high side for swing districts, making this district an anomaly.
Results: Republicans have held the Senate seat and at least one of the two House seats for the past four elections, but Democratic candidates eked out victories for the second House seat in 2006 and 2008.
Advantage: Republicans.
District 17
Location: The lower right part of the C covers the southern-most part of Scottsdale and most of Tempe, including Arizona State University.
Registration: The Democrats have a 4.2 percent registration edge.
Results: The Democrats have held the Senate seat and a minimum of one of the two House seats in the last four elections. Republicans won the second House seat by razor-thin margins in 2002 and 2004, but the Democrats have swept the races in the last two elections.
Advantage: Democrats.
District 20
Location: The bottom of the C covers parts of Tempe and Chandler and the Ahwatukee portion of Phoenix adjacent to South Mountain Park.
Registration: The Republicans have a 9 percent registration edge although the picture is changing fast. The Republican advantage was more than double that at the time the district boundaries were drawn. Since then the Democrats have gained more ground here than in any other district in the state.
Results: The victory by Democrat Rae Waters for the second House seat in the 2008 election makes this a swing district only by the most generous of definitions. Republicans otherwise have owned it. Democrats did not field candidates for Senate in 2002 or 2004 and had no candidates for the House in 2006. And this year Waters is the sole Democratic candidate for three offices. Current Rep. John McComish, a Republican, is running unopposed for the Senate.
Advantage: Republicans. Even with their relative gains in voter registration, Democratic breakthroughs would seem more likely in District 12, which has only a 3.7 percent voter registration edge for Republicans, than in the much more Republican District 11 or here in District 20.
District 23
Location: Stretching south of Phoenix to the east of Interstate 10. Includes parts of Maricopa and Gila counties, and much of rapidly growing Pinal County. Growth from metropolitan Phoenix spreading south into Pinal County made it, percentage-wise, the second fastest growing county in the nation in 2008. As a result, District 23 has been far and away the fastest growing in the state since the district boundaries were set in 2002.
Registration: Democrats still have a 4.5 percent registration edge, but this is a sharp falloff from years past. Democrats have taken a bigger tumble here than anywhere else in the state. Whereas they once had the allegiance of more than half of the district’s voters, that figure is now down to 34.6 percent – same as for the independents.
Results: This has been Democratic territory. Republicans didn’t field a candidate for the Senate and only one candidate for the House in 2002 and 2004, but they have been roaring up on the outside. They eked out a victory for one House seat in 2008 in a very close election in which the two Republican candidates halved the votes with the two Democratic candidates.
Advantage: Very slight for Democrats.
District 24
Location: Yuma and the surrounding southwest corner of the state.
Registration: Democrats have a 5.5 percent registration edge, although this is another district where their fortunes have lagged. The district’s surge in independents, the largest such increase in the state, has come at the expense of Democrats and to a lesser extent for Republicans.
Results: Democrats have owned the Senate seat, although by rather narrow margins of 4-6 percent in the last two elections. Republicans have won one of the two House seats in three of the last four elections.
Advantage: Democrats.
District 25
Location: Curly-cues around west, south and east of Tucson, from Gila Bend to Ajo, across the Tohono O’odham Reservation and then taking in most of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties.
Registration: Democrats have an 8 percent registration edge over Republicans, though here too the advantage is diminished. The Democrats have turned over 11.8 percent of the district’s voters to the independents. It’s the third largest drop in the state.
Results: Along with District 5, this district comes closest to being evenly divided in terms of races won. But here in District 25, it’s the Democrats who have an 8-4 edge. They have held the Senate seat and one of the two House seats in all four elections. Each time the Republicans won the other House seat, though usually by rather narrow margins. In fact, the district has had the closest races for the House in the state. The margin between the total vote for the two Republican candidates and their two Democrat opponents averaged just 4 percent over the four elections.
Advantage: Democrats by a small margin.
District 26
Location: The north and northwest sides of Tucson, just barely reaching into Pinal County.
Registration: Republicans have an 8 percent registration edge, although here it is Republicans who are being replaced by independents. Republicans have lost 6.5 percent of voters while Independents have gained as much. The Democrats meanwhile have held their share.
Results: This was Republican territory in 2002 and 2004, but Democrats have made strides since. They very narrowly won the Senate seat in 2006, then turned the seat back to the Republicans in 2008. The two parties split the two House seats in 2006 and 2008.
Advantage: Republicans by a small margin.
